If Democrats Lose Congress, It Won’t Be Because H.R. 1 Didn’t Pass
Gotta be honest: H.R. 1 would have helped the worst Republicans.
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Don’t get me wrong: Much of what the GOP has done on voting rights and redistricting has been bad. And there is plenty of room for reforms enacted at the national level.
But Democrats are in trouble because they have basically no cushion. If they lose five House seats in the fall elections, they’re back in the minority in that chamber. Redistricting—the redrawing of congressional maps after each decennial census—seems to have tilted things in the GOP’s favor, too, although somewhat less than some analysts had predicted. Historically, though, the party in power tends to get the crap beat out of them during the first midterm election. And five seats in the House is by historical standards a low threshold: In three of the last four midterms elections under a president in his first (or only) term, the opposition party gained dozens of seats: 54 seats in the “Republican Revolution” under Clinton in 1994, 63 seats in the “Republican wave” under Obama in 2010, and 41 seats for the Democrats’ “blue wave” under Trump in 2018. (The exception to this pattern came in 2002, when public support for Bush, a wartime president, translated into a surprising gain of 8 seats for the GOP.)
Trump's child-like fascination with "tough guys" like Putin is part of the reason why we are where we are today. Many Republicans are now following his lead — allying themselves with a foreign power that sows dissent and division here. Tim O'Brien joins Charlie Sykes today.
The primary legal claim is that the defendants violated the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871, a post-Civil War statute aimed at addressing white supremacist violence against African Americans notwithstanding ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment and other constitutional provisions establishing equal rights regardless of race. One provision of the statute, 42 U.S.C. § 1985(1), goes further, prohibiting conspiracies “to prevent, by force, intimidation, or threat, any person from accepting or holding any office, trust, or place of confidence under the United States, or from discharging any duties thereof . . . or to injure his property so as to molest, interrupt, hinder, or impede him in the discharge of his official duties.” This is the crux of the Thompson case.
The plaintiffs allege that Trump and his allies, before and on Jan. 6th, conspired to prevent members of Congress, “by force, intimidation, and threats,” from discharging their duties to certify the Electoral College results and to prevent Joe Biden and Kamala Harris from assuming office. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Cal.) additionally brought a claim under a related statute, 42 U.S.C. § 1986, that makes it illegal to neglect or refuse to take steps to prevent a conspiracy.
IAN KELLY AND DAVID J. KRAMER: Ukraine Isn’t the Only Target of Putin’s Aggression.
Last month, amid what may have been an intra-governmental power struggle, Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was forced to request a Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) unit to quell anti-government riots, putting him firmly in Putin’s debt. Tokayev was in Moscow last week to kiss Putin’s ring. In the South Caucasus, after negotiating a ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh region, Putin compelled both sides to accept a long-term Russian peacekeeping force, elbowing out the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which Russia had once agreed would field the operation.
Most surprisingly, the country with the strongest public support for joining NATO, Georgia, has also been doing its best to appease Russia. Where once it welcomed Russia’s dissident freedom fighters, it has recently, and without explanation, turned away at least three prominent critics of Putin and supporters of imprisoned opposition leader Aleksey Navalny. Unlike Ukraine’s other partners, Georgia has not provided material support for Ukraine’s defense and the Georgian Prime Minister has not even called his Ukrainian counterpart. In a development widely seen as appeasement, a recent draft resolution in parliament about the crisis does not even mention Russia.
How to think like a lawyer… Our colleague Kim Wehle’s new book is out.
The speech to watch on Ukraine. Global politics is messy. Drawing borders is messy. But watching this speech from the Kenyan Ambassador may help.
Submitted without comment…
The 1/6 Committee wins again…
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